Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the ...

This paper addresses the building of obligor-level hazard rate corporate probability of default models for stress testing, departing from the predominant practice in wholesale credit modeling of ...

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio. This ratio predicts that the credit spread will be ...

What is the probability of a US recession? UBS Research uses a variety of recession variability models to predict the likelihood of the US heading into a recession. Read our three-part series to learn ...